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Risk

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The Power of Nutmeg

by Ron Potter July 5, 2018

Because my wife is of Dutch heritage, we have spent time exploring her ancestry back to the Netherlands. Her family was a part of New Amsterdam which eventually became Manhattan. A distant family member suggested I read a book titled The Island at the Center of the World. Fascinating.

Here is a description from Goodreads that will give you a small understanding of the scope of the book and Impact of New Amsterdam on New York and America of today.

When the British wrested New Amsterdam from the Dutch in 1664, the truth about its thriving, polyglot society began to disappear into myths about an island purchased for 24 dollars and a cartoonish peg-legged governor. But the story of the Dutch colony of New Netherland was merely lost, not destroyed: 12,000 pages of its records–recently declared a national treasure–are now being translated. Drawing on this remarkable archive, Russell Shorto has created a gripping narrative–a story of global sweep centered on a wilderness called Manhattan–that transforms our understanding of early America.

The Dutch colony pre-dated the “original” thirteen colonies, yet it seems strikingly familiar. Its capital was cosmopolitan and multi-ethnic, and its citizens valued free trade, individual rights, and religious freedom. Their champion was a progressive, young lawyer named Adriaen van der Donck, who emerges in these pages as a forgotten American patriot and whose political vision brought him into conflict with Peter Stuyvesant, the autocratic director of the Dutch colony. The struggle between these two strong-willed men laid the foundation for New York City and helped shape American culture. The Island at the Center of the World uncovers a lost world and offers a surprising new perspective on our own.

Upon reading this book you begin to realize that many of the concepts that America is built upon came from the early Dutch colony, not completely from the English colonies that came later.

But, knowing what New York and America are worth today or back in the mid-1660’s a very powerful question begins to emerge “Why did the Dutch give up Manhattan without firing a shot?”

The answer to that question is Nutmeg!

The most expensive spice in the world at the time was nutmeg. It cost more per ounce than gold. The Dutch wanted the nutmeg trade and were willing to give New Netherland including New Amsterdam to the English in trade for the small Polynesian Island of Run.

Today that trade looks absolutely nuts. The wealth of America could have been a foundation for the Dutch and we would be closer to the Netherlands today than England. You’ll have trouble finding the Island of Run without Google help.

The point is that at the time, this was a good trade. We didn’t quite see the total future and value of the new world, but the value of Nutmeg was well established. It was a good deal. The world economy and shipping was driven mainly by spices in the 1600 and 1700’s. Filling one ship with Nutmeg at over thirteen dollars per ounce was a tremendous economic driver. Manhattan for the Island of Run was a very good deal.

Lesson learned? Don’t judge decisions made in the past by the conditions that exist today. You will falsely accuse the decision makers of making bad, wrong or stupid decisions. Nothing may have been farther from the truth.

One of the reasons many teams and corporations aren’t good at decision making today is caused by the second-guessing of decisions made in the past.  Learn form the past, don’t second guess the past.

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Short Book Reviews

Life in Half a Second

by Ron Potter October 17, 2016

life-in-half-a-secondRon’s Short Review: While Matthew’s definition of success is clearly stuck in the materialistic world, his “five door” process can really help you focus and be successful at many levels.

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Short Book Reviews

A Failure of Nerve

by Ron Potter June 1, 2016

Ron’s Short Review: Maybe the most profound book I’ve read in a long time. Goes a long way in explaining the cause of poor leadership and teamwork (as well as government, education and parenting). It will take me a while to unpack all that is contained in this book but it really gets at the core of many issues.

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Short Book Reviews

Risk Savvy

by Ron Potter February 1, 2016

risk savvyRon’s Short Review:

Does a great job of breaking out the types of risk, relative vs absolute, and the difference between risk and uncertainty. It will equip you to be much better and risk analysis and making better decisions.

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BlogCulture

Be Bold, Buy a Toyota

by Ron Potter August 27, 2015
Image source: Daniel, Creative Commons

Image source: Daniel, Creative Commons

I had to chuckle when I heard this latest marketing campaign from Toyota.

Nothing against Toyota, I’ve owned a few and had good experiences. But it just seemed ironic to say, “Be bold! Buy the most mass produced car from the largest auto manufacturer in the world!”

I work for companies that have over 30,000 employees, over 100,000 and over 200,000. And when I’m at those companies I will hear and see slogans like:

  • Be bold
  • Take risk
  • Fail Frequently
  • Be innovative
  • We thrive on creativity

And that makes me chuckle as well.

Some well documented studies suggest that once organizations cross the 150 employee line, they become, by nature, more risk adverse as they seek and require more reliability and predictability. They achieve this through standardization which is the opposite of messy risk taking innovation and creativity. An organization of thirty, fifty, or one hundred thousand has a lot of people at lots of layers with veto power.

Build it and they will come

I’ve had the opportunity to work with at least four companies who were the largest in the world in their industry, and I’ve noticed one constant phenomenon regardless of the overall culture of the company: You can always find pockets of excellence. Somewhere a leader and team are building a great culture within their sphere of influence that is bold, innovative, growth oriented, respectful, fast failing—all the aspects that make a great and productive place to work.

Another observation is that good people are always scrambling to get into these teams, divisions, or groups. When you build a great culture, you’ll never be short on talent.

Be bold. Build that great team. Be that great leader. Create that great culture. It’s fun! It’s rewarding.

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Short Book Reviews

Second Machine Age

by Ron Potter November 4, 2014

second machine ageRon’s Short Review: Moving through the ages: agricultural, industrial, information and now the 2nd machine age. How are really smart machines going to impact us?

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Short Book Reviews

Hard Thing About Hard Things

by Ron Potter February 18, 2014

hard thingRon’s Short Review: Good advice written for the CEO’s of start-ups but it really applies to leadership at any level.

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Short Book Reviews

Anyway

by Ron Potter August 9, 2013

AnywayRon’s Short Review: I’ve used this very little easy read with many of my clients.  Life is difficult (as Scott Peck would say); do it anyway.

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BlogLeadership

Afraid of Failure

by Ron Potter July 3, 2011
Afraid of Failure

Image Source: True New Zealand Advent, Creative Commons

I am not a trekker. Although I do own a trekking stick (very high tech with a camera mount on the top) and for a while I did subscribe to a trekking magazine with wonderful, high gloss photos of small groups of people in their hiking boots, cargo pants and trekking sticks walking across pristine landscapes in Scotland and Ireland with periodic stops for wine and cheese and their porters ferrying their luggage to be waiting for them at the next B&B. While adventuresome is portrayed a very serine and safe journey.

But recently, I read an article about Carmichael. His day time job is the CEO of a high-end coffee supply company. His avocation is Trekking. Real Trekking! Having accomplished treks across some of the most remote and inhospitable places in the world, his latest challenge is Death Valley. Hard-core trekkers regard Death Valley as undoable and there is no known record of any human being accomplishing the task. He had just failed at his second attempt to trek across the valley. Listen to some of his words:

“Everyone focuses on risk and failure. What happens if you fail? How do you mitigate the risk? I look around and see people who live in the safest places in the world, and they are preoccupied with anxieties and fears because they don’t know what risk is anymore.”

Once he said it I realized that I observe this exact behavior in all of the people I meet and even in the corporate cultures that I work with. Some people take on entirely new careers in their lives while others make one shift to a different team in a company they’ve worked at for twenty and think “phew, I made that leap without failing”. Some corporate cultures are moving into emerging parts of the world with processes and technology totally different from what they’ve used for fifty years while others will make a merger offer and then back away from it as too risky when a slightly increased counter offer is presented. We seem to use the same scale for measuring risk as if we are a kid contemplating jumping across a puddle or if we’re walking steel 200 feet in the air (a personal experience of mine ;-).

After his second failed attempt to trek across Death Valley, Carmichael said “That’s it. It’s over dude.” At that moment of failure he didn’t see any way that he would ever attempt this one again. But later he had begun to absorb his experience.

“The word that goes through your mind is fail, fail, fail. But once you get some perspective you realize that you learned something important. In the end, it’s not about how many tries you needed to get something done. It’s about not quitting and keeping at it until you achieve the goal. So, no, I didn’t fail. Failure is if it broke me. I just didn’t make it – this time.”

How do we break out of our own ring of risk? That bubble that we live in where the most risky thing inside our bubble looks like the riskiest thing anywhere? We get outside of our bubble! We get to know people who live in other bubbles. We learn of their efforts, failures, successes, heart aches, joys and start seeing the world through a different set of eyes. Suddenly when we look back into our own bubble, we realize that that daunting risk that we’ve been facing is nothing more than a little puddle. If you only see the world through your own perspective, it can become a very risky place and you will become very risk averse.

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