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REPOST

ROUNDUP: The Rise of AI

by Ron Potter August 3, 2023
A Note From the Editor:
As we recently mentioned, we are reposting popular blog posts while Ron is recovering from some health issues. As we watch the rise of AI, here are some books and articles you may be interested in.

Ron’s Short Review: Great view of how our rapidly changing technology and expectations of the next generation of young people are going to change the structures of our corporations.  Written way back in 2009, you can see much of this playing out already.


Ron’s Short Review: The shift to technology-based work is pushing us beyond the information age. If you’ve been an “Information Worker” you should learn how to augment technology to keep yourself relevant.

 


24/7 Connection

We never get away from it. 24/7 we’re connected. Maybe it’s because I spent much of my career without all of this modern connectedness that I’m a little better at managing it rather than it managing me (my wife will laugh at that statement). But, different than many of my younger colleagues, I believe it is ok to shut it off, not answer that phone, don’t respond instantly to that incoming message. I believe it’s because we don’t shut off this connectedness in the evening when we should be focused on family, or weekends when we should be focused on R&R and getting that job-list done or on vacation when we should be re-creating that our work-life balance seems out of whack. Continue Reading >>>


The Need for Empathy

I have been emphasizing the need for strong face-to-face relationship building for years with my corporate clients. One line from Alvin Toffler’s book Future Shock from years ago has always stuck with me. That line was, “High tech, high touch.” His point was not to assume that the increase in technology was going to diminish the need for personal relationships, the need for personal relationships was going to increase right along with the technical capabilities. Continue Reading >>>


Information Overload

Toffler defined “Future Shock” as “A personal perception of too much change in too short of time.” He also coined the term “Information overload.”

His term “high tech, high touch” lead into his discussion of one of the antidotes to dealing with future shock and information overload. His point was that as we deal more and more with this intrusion of the globally connected, instant on, information overload, we must also make sure we increase the “high touch” right along with it. This high tech world will not work without high touch, trusting, and personal relationships. Continue Reading >>>


More Information Isn’t Always Better

Forecasting is another place where I see the siren song of technology creating unintended consequences.  The belief seems to be that if we just have more information (often striving for “all” the information) it will help us become better forecasters.  Brain science debunks that theory right off the bat.  The human mind is just terrible at forecasting.  If you want to debate me on that statement, I’ll start with political polls and forecasts.  End of argument!  And other research done by the people who actually study forecasting for a living tells us that the companies who seem to be best at forecasting do it with a minimum amount of data.  More data doesn’t make better forecasting. Continue Reading >>>


Afraid of AI

So, I’m afraid.  For the first time in my life, I’m worried about technology running our lives rather than us using technology to enhance our lives.  Is ChatGPT the start of it?  Timnit Gebru spends her days looking at and learning about what is going on with AI.  She expected AI to one day power much of our lives.  But she didn’t believe it would happen this quickly. Continue Reading >>>


AI’s Untrustworthiness

While we’ve seemed to hold AI in high regard, let’s keep in mind that it’s unreal, counterfeit, fake, and false. Artificial intelligence is not to be admired, it’s to be looked at cautiously. I was talking with my daughter and son-in-law the other day and saying that I was concerned about kids today believing everything they see and read on their phones as if it were reality. Continue Reading >>>


The reviews were originally posted here and here on March 31, 2016 and February 1, 2018.
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BlogPersonal

Fake Smarts

by Ron Potter March 30, 2023

I’ve talked about my concerns with ChatGPT. A word that is heavily used in articles related to ChatGPT is Artificial Intelligence (AI).
Let’s start with the word artificial. Synonyms for the word include:
• Unreal
• Bogus
• Counterfeit
• Fabricated
• Faked
• False
Now let’s take a look at some of the synonyms for the word intelligence:
• Brainpower
• Reason
• Sense
• Smarts
So if we put a few of those words together we get Bogus Brainpower, Counterfeit Reason, Fabricated Sense, False Smarts, etc. There are endless combinations, none of them very flattering.

While we’ve seemed to hold AI in high regard, let’s keep in mind that it’s unreal, counterfeit, fake, and false. Artificial intelligence is not to be admired, it’s to be looked at cautiously.

I was talking with my daughter and son-in-law the other day and saying that I was concerned about kids today believing everything they see and read on their phones as if it were reality. They pointed out that their kids seem to be more discerning about what they see and read but made the point that it’s not just my grandkids’ generation but my kids’ generation as well.

I can think of a few AI machines in the movies that were both humorous and scary. The first one was HAL from the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey.

HAL

HAL stood for Heuristically programmed ALgorithmic computer. HAL scared the bejeebies out of me. Why? Because he began to take over without human control.

This was HAL speaking to the captain of the spaceship where HAL was the onboard computer: “When the crew are dead or incapacitated, the computer must assume control. I must, therefore, override your authority now since you are not in any condition to intelligently exercise it.”

HAL had become the AI computer that no longer needed human control.

R2-D2

R2-D2 and C-3PO are from the Star Wars movie series. George Lucas, the creator and producer of Star Wars, calls R2-D2 his favorite character. R2-D2 was friends with C-3PO (standing next to him) and he never had his memory wiped by Darth Vader, the evil character of the film series. But he never used it for bad and he never shied away from listening to others. He was a good and funny character.

It is my impression that throughout history, everything invented by man has at some point been used for evil and good. HAL and R2-D2 seem to be opposite sides of the same coin.

AI

Artificial intelligence (AI) is just another one of those human inventions. It has and will be used for both good and evil. I don’t think we’ll avoid it but I do believe we can be very cautious and questioning. Don’t just take the things created by AI as reliable. Be discerning! Question everything it’s saying or writing! This all implies that you have the willpower and character to do so. Know who you are first then look at the world around you through those eyes.

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BlogPersonal

Am I a Luddite?

by Ron Potter March 23, 2023

I’m really sure I’m not a Troglodyte.  For one, I can’t grow a beard.  For two, my forehead is too big.  But more importantly, our current definition of a Troglodyte is: a person who is regarded as being deliberately ignorant or old-fashioned.  I may be old-fashioned but I really try not to be ignorant.

I also don’t think I’m a Luddite.  Unfortunately, Luddites don’t know that they are Luddites.

I haven’t been afraid of too many things in my life.  I’ve shared in previous blogs how my first job out of engineering school had me walking structural steel up to 160′ in the air with no safety equipment.  I was terrified my first day and told the chief engineer that I couldn’t do it.  He said, “Give it two weeks and if you’re still struggling, I’ll find another job for you.”  Two weeks later I could do it.  I had overcome my fear (although I was still very cautious).

Computer Fear

A lot of people were very fearful of computers taking over our lives when they first appeared.  I remember seeing my first Osborne “portable” computer in about 1981.

It had two floppy drives and a 5” blue screen. I was watching it run Visicalc, a precursor to Microsoft Excel. I saw this first microcomputer at a Las Vegas exhibit. I flew home and went to my boss and told him I was leaving the construction industry and going into microcomputers. He said, “What’s a microcomputer?” I said, hang on, you’ll find out.

While microcomputers frightened a lot of people, I was not worried.  It still took a human to control them.

Technology Adapter

I was an early adaptor in a lot of technology.  I recently showed you my Curta Computer.  When I show people even today, many of them have never seen one.

I was an early adapter of Blackberry phones. The first one I owned came out about three months after Research in Motion introduced them.

I was really quite comfortable with technology and its advances until last week.

ChatGPT and the Printing Press

I meet with a small group of guys about every week and we discuss whatever is on our minds.  One of the guys asked if we were familiar with “ChatGPT.”  I, like most of the group, said no.  However, I said no because the technology scared me and I had simply avoided it.  For the first time, I was afraid of technology because it seems like it has crossed that barrier of requiring human control.

There is a Wall Street Journal article with the title “ChatPGT Hearlds an Intellectual Revolution.”  The opening paragraph of the article says, “A new technology bids to transform cognitive process as it has not been shaken since the invention of printing.”  The article talks about the technology revolution that was introduced when Gutenberg printed the Bible on his press in 1455.

When I was in Germany years ago, I went to see the Gutenberg press and some of the documents it printed.  Those documents were beautifully illustrated pages from the Bible.  To me, it seemed like a wonderful invention in history.  But I know that at the time it frightened many people.  There was no instrument that could reproduce the written word and the fact you could now do it seemed almost evil.  I hope I’m not reacting the same way to ChatPGT, so I’ve tried to educate myself about the technology.

GPT

GPT stands for Generative Pre-trained Transformer.  The WSJ makes several interesting observations.

  • ChatGPT statements and observations appear without an explanation of where they came from and without an identifiable author.
  • Answers are not simply copied from the text in the computer’s memory.  They are generated anew by a process that humans are unable to replicate.
  • Within a few days of ChatGPT’s launch, more than a million people signed up to ask questions.
  • The WSJ asked ChatGPT to give “six references on Henry Kissinger’s thoughts on technology.”  All were plausible: one was a real title and the rest were convincing fabrications!
  • As models turn from human-generated text to more inclusive inputs, machines are likely to alter the fabric of reality.
  • What happens if this technology cannot be completely controlled?  What if there will always be ways to generate falsehoods, false pictures, and fake videos, and people will never learn to disbelieve what they see and hear?

Timnit Gebru

One ray of hope for me is a woman by the name of Timnit Gebru.  Ms. Gebru is the founder and executive director of the Distributed Artificial Intelligence Research Institute (DAIR).  Much of her work involves the ways AI (Artificial Intelligence) programs can reinforce existing prejudices.  She says, “We talk about algorithms, but we don’t talk about who’s constructing the data set or who’s in the data set.”  Go Timnit, I’m pulling for you!

So, I’m afraid.  For the first time in my life, I’m worried about technology running our lives rather than us using technology to enhance our lives.  Is ChatGPT the start of it?  Timnit Gebru spends her days looking at and learning about what is going on with AI.  She expected AI to one day power much of our lives.  But she didn’t believe it would happen this quickly.

Luddites

Who were the Luddites?  Many people think they were small-brained and stupid.  They were not.  Many people get them confused with the Troglodyte.  I spoke above about the Troglodytes being deliberately ignorant or old-fashioned.  Luddites were the craftsmen of the day.

The Luddites protested against manufacturers who used machines in what they called “a fraudulent and deceitful manner” to get around standard labor practices. Luddites feared that the time spent learning the skills of their craft would go to waste, as machines would replace their role in the industry.  Ned Ludd was an apprentice who allegedly smashed two stocking frames in 1779 and whose name had become emblematic of machine destroyers.

I don’t believe I’m a Luddite.  Although I’ve learned and used technology from the time it was invented, I don’t want to destroy it.  I do however want it to remain under human control rather than humans being under the control of technology.  The good news is that God is the one who is really in control of Troglodytes, Luddites, humans, and machines.  He’s the one in control and that comforts me even when I’m worried about the machines taking over.

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